The US and China will likely go to war over Taiwan by 2025, a high-ranking American military official has warned.
US Air Force General Mike Minihan outlined the series of circumstances that would encourage Chinese president Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan in a memo sent on Friday to the leaders of the Air Mobility Command, which he heads.
“I hope I’m wrong. My heart tells me that we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024 and give Xi a reason. The United States presidential election is in 2024 and will offer Xi a disrupted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” Minihan wrote in the memo, first NBC News reported.
As the head of the Air Mobility Command, Minihan oversees the Air Force’s aircraft transportation and refueling fleet. In the memo, he urged personnel to “consider their personal affairs” and be more aggressive about training.
“If you’re comfortable with your training method,” he wrote, “you’re not taking enough risks.” He ordered the airmen to “fire a clip at a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant death is essential.”
“Aim the head,” he added.
“These comments are not representative of the view of the Chinese department,” a US defense official said told Reuters in response to the memo.
China considers Taiwan its own, but the latter operates as an independent democracy and is never controlled by Beijing. In the past few years, China has been flying larger types of warplanes near Taiwan, including large-scale exercises it conducted when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August.
It also adds up military presence in the South China Sea, including bases built on reef-made-artificial islands in disputed waters. Some of these reefs are claimed by the Philippines, where President Ferdinand Marcos Jr so-called US-China tension in Taiwan “very, very worrisome for us,” and added that he expects Manila’s military ties to America to deepen.
In November, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned of the economic impact if China invades Taiwan and seizes the semiconductor industry, on which America is “absolutely and completely dependent” for computer chips. “If we lose access to Taiwanese semiconductors, the hit to US GDP is likely to be in the order of magnitude of 5% to 10%,” he said. “This is a immediate Great Depression.”
In a op-ed published Thursday on Wall Street Journal, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey also warned of a possible war with China against Taiwan. Like Minihan, he is targeting the 2024 elections in Taiwan. He noted that Taiwan’s vice president, Lai Ching-te, a staunch supporter of Taiwan’s independence, took over as head of the ruling party last week.
“China will now almost certainly seek to interfere in Taiwan’s 2024 election in an attempt to prevent Mr. Lai from winning the presidency,” Cropsey wrote. “If he wins, Beijing may move quickly to invade.”
Learn how to navigate and build trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter that explores what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.