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Americans who are worried about robots taking their jobs are the only “fearful ones” who watched too many movies, right?
Artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics will improve the workforce productivity and spur economic growth while CREATING new, higher-paying jobs—or at least that’s the argument.
But new research shows that the rise of robots may not be as beneficial for workers as others claims. Automation may have a positive impact on economic growth and productivity, according to economists, but workers may not reap the rewards.
“Exposure to robots has a negative impact on employment, leading some workers to drop out of the labor force and increasing unemployment,” wrote economics professor Osea Giuntella of the University of Pittsburgh, Yi Lu of Tsinghua University, and Tianyi Wang of the University of Toronto. of the National Bureau of Economic Research ROLE was released earlier this month.
Economists have analyzed the effects of industrial robots on China’s labor market using data from more than 15,000 families and found that it has struggled to “adjust” to the dramatic changes brought about by robotics.
“Robot exposure led to a decline in labor force participation (-1%), employment (-7.5%), and hourly wages (-9%) among Chinese workers,” they wrote. “At the same time, among those who continue to work, robot exposure increases the number of hours worked by 14%.”
China relies heavily on robotics and the automation of jobs a decadeespecially to industrial sector. The county has more industrial robots than any other, and this year, it overtook the US when it comes to the number of industrial robots per capita, according to International Federation of Robotics.
But for Chinese workers, the rise of robots has not always been beneficial. Take the example of Apple’s main iPhone supplier, Foxconn, which was replaced above 400,000 human jobs between 2012 and 2016 with robots to push automation.
Economists say the evidence for short-term labor market distress due to Chinese robotics is strong—and argue that’s particularly bad news for emerging economies.
Undue burden on the developing world
Workers in the developing world are likely to feel the brunt of the rise of robotics and automation in the near term, economists explained.
Many emerging market economies rely heavily on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors where automation and robotics are more likely to displace the workforce. And with a higher share of emerging market workers with only a high school education or less, it will take time for many to acquire the skills needed to benefit from these new jobs brought about by robotics, AI, and automation.
“The implications of robotization in emerging markets for jobs, growth, and inequality will be profound,” the economists wrote. “Without job creation, automation, digitalization and job-saving technologies can increase inequality.”
They go on to argue that developing countries may face a decision between “increased productivity and potentially higher economic inequality and social unrest” if they choose to continue automate jobs with robots.
Finally, they said there is still more research to be done on whether long-term productivity improvements from robotics and automation will “translate into job growth” someday, but for now, workers will likely continue to lose their jobs to these new technologies.
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